The Global Industrial Economy Is Recovering

Despite a record tightening in rates, the services economy showed incredible resiliency throughout the rate hike cycle. Manufacturing did not. However, as financial conditions have loosened and inventories have receded, the industrial economy is in the early stages of a recovery.

Here are 5 charts that show the improvement:

1) The U.S. manufacturing PMI was 50.3 in March 2024 and at the highest level in 16 months.

2) New Orders (blue line) are growing again and are a leading indicator for manufacturing.

3) Although the year-over-year compares are negative, rail intermodal loadings are growing and showing acceleration.

4) The global manufacturing PMI resembles the U.S. and has also entered expansion territory.

5) Chinese new export orders are also growing.

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