The Top 10 Takeaways From The April Jobs Report

If you missed ‘Hyperscalers Are In Hyper Investment Mode’ here is the LINK.

Numbers don’t lie, but people do.

To cut out the noise, I’ve been following the data myself. Here is the actual data from the April Jobs report, and my interpretation of the numbers. I hope you find this useful.

Here are links to JANUARY, FEBRUARY, and MARCH reports.

In April 2024, the U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs. While the markets will gyrate based on the variance to expectations, it is much better to look at payrolls post revisions. For example, January and February have been revised lower by 97k and 39K respectively (see revisions).

Here are the top 10 takeaways from the jobs report:

1) The U.S. economy has added 0.5 million jobs over the past 12 months.

2) The number of unemployed increased by 0.8 million over the past year.

3) The number of unemployed (over 27 weeks) increased by 200K YoY.

4) The number of part-time workers increased by 600K YoY.

5) The average weekly hours worked are unchanged over the past year.

6) Average weekly earnings increased 3.9% YoY.

7) Average hourly earnings increased 3.9% YoY.

8) Employment in goods-producing categories increased by 300K YoY.

9) Private services employ 1.9 million more workers over 12 months.

10) The Government sector employment has grown by 600K jobs over the past year.

Negative Revisions:

Over the past year, the BLS report has been too optimistic, and the negative revisions are quite dramatic. See the chart below.

Jobless Claims

Historically, jobless claims have increased 10% in the preceding 26 weeks before an official recession declaration.

Right now, claims have increased 3% and the risk of an imminent recession is low.

Lastly, the layoff data from Challenger Grey & Christmas also supports the picture that the labor market is stable.