The Top 10 Takeaways From The March Jobs Report

In March 2024, the U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs. Not only was the headline number strong, but the details were also good.

Here are the top 10 takeaways from the jobs report:

1)     The U.S. economy added 0.6 million jobs over the past 12 months.

2)     The number of unemployed increased by 0.5 million over the past year but declined sequentially.

3)     The number of unemployed (over 27 weeks) increased by 195K YoY but stayed relatively flat sequentially.

4)     The number of part-time workers increased by 217K YoY but declined sequentially. See the global industrial economy is improving (LINK).

5)     The average weekly hours worked increased from January to March.

6)     Average weekly earnings increased 4.1% YoY.

7)     Average hourly earnings increased 4.1% YoY. 

8)     Employment in goods-producing categories has increased by 304K YoY.

9)     Private services employ 1.96 million more workers over 12 months.

10)   The Government sector employment has grown by 665K jobs over the past year.

Negative Revisions:

Over the past year, the BLS report has been too optimistic, and the negative revisions are quite dramatic. See the chart below.

Jobless Claims

Historically, jobless claims have increased by an average of 10% in the preceding 26 weeks before an official recession declaration. 

Over the past 26 weeks, claims have only increased by 3% implying a low risk of an imminent recession. See the chart below.

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